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Monday, July 15, 2013

Change in Umno unlikely despite rumblings

An underground movement is emerging within Umno, one that may alter the political landscape if it were to succeed
COMMENT
In the aftermath of the 13th general election, talk has been revived about pushing Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah to take over the top Umno post from Najib Tun Razak.
The talk comes not only from within Umno, but also from other BN parties, including those in Sabah, and the opposition parties as well.
BN members, including some from Umno, want change at the top as the coalition figures out how to rope in new parties and new faces to consolidate its rule over the nation.
There is little doubt that BN will have to adapt to the new reality created by Umno’s outright domination within the coalition and the extreme arrogance of some of its leaders.
The blasting of the Home Ministry by BN and Umno MPs in Sabah over the Lahad Datu incursion is yet another sign of trouble brewing within the party.
But the question is, whether the freedom to take pot shots at federal leaders by party members from Sabah or Sarawak will erode Najib’s dream of a rule without hassle?
It is also like asking if Umno will be split into two at a juncture in its history where it won the elections with more seats than in 2008, controlling more states than any other party and monopolising the cabinet.
What can happen to Umno in the next five years? It’s is a very old institution, still in power after decades of rule and is not about to relinquish it when the opposition force is that close to taking over.
Razaleigh can dream on about becoming the PM. There is no guarantee that he will win anything near what he achieved umpteen years ago when he almost dethroned Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
Political survival
It is also certain that despite the backing from Sabah MPs and Pakatan, who are desperate to see a change at the top, nothing will happen.
Altogether, there may be a slippery moment in Umno’s immediate future if anyone dares (Razaleigh included) to take on Najib for the top post in the party.
There are reasons for the BN to be worried about a leadership battle, but Umno, the big winners in GE13 is more than worried with the upcoming party polls.
An underground movement is emerging within Umno, one that may change the political landscape if it were to succeed, though the chances of such an eventuality is slim.
And success for the rebels will come only if the Sabah MPs are really serious and are not trying to get brimmed and buttered with projects and hot cash.
For Umno, it will be about political survival.
A new leader may give it the glitter it lost over the years but a failed coup by the Sabah MPs will not only bury Razaleigh for good, it will also bring a large fog over Umno.
Why? A leadership change will prove that the party, after a big win in GE13, is still a sinking ship that had to throw its captain overboard to satisfy what it perceives as the need for leadership change.
On the other hand, a failure by the brewing rebellion will only consolidate the party’s reputation as a party of the past, incapable of changing.
Ali Cordoba writes extensively on local politics.

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