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Sunday, July 14, 2013

Zahid being pushed out for Mukhriz? But can Dr M trust the Najib,Rosmah,Hisham combo?

Zahid being pushed out for Mukhriz? But can Dr M trust the Najib,Rosmah,Hisham combo?
In the limelight of late, Home Minister Zahid Hamidi has become the new fall guy for UMNO. He is the uncouth 'loudmouth' now hated by those who can't stand the UMNO brand of arrogant, racial and religious politicking.
But the 60-year-old UMNO vice president has also proven that he is a very daring man, capable even of hooliganism when he punched and badly hurt a man who had allegedly abducted his daughter. The shocking incident took place on January 16, 2006 at the Country Heights Recreational Club in Kajang and till now is still being fought out in the courts.
And this is perhaps even more sensational - how come Zahid, with his wealth and power, has not been able to pull together a better cover-up? Who are his enemies ensuring that this case stays alive, perhaps ready to be whipped up into flames large enough to consume his career when the time is deemed right!
Vulnerable
Whatever it is, Zahid is trying hard not to be veered off track by this case or his unseen enemies. In recent weeks, since becoming Home Minister in May, Zahid has been unusually rude and sarcastic. He has shown knee-jerk reactions to many important issues including on the fate of the Sedition Act and the Emergency Ordinance. Some of his reactions were so wild that his critics slammed him for 'by-passing his brain' and shooting off his mouth in a way totally unbecoming of an educated man and a senior minister.
Without a doubt, the slew of foolish and brash Zahid comments have angered many people. Even his close associates are embarrassed by his actions; they too secretly think that Zahid has gone overboard.
For whatever reasons - whether calculated, misjudged or 'lured' - Zahid has put himself in a very vulnerable situation because of his kamikaze behavior. Zahid's enemies now have a full range of arsenal from which they can pick and choose to take him down.
Calculated 'best defense'
However, some of those close to Zahid say he is taking a calculated risk. He thinks he will enjoy the backing of UMNO's powerful warlord - Mahathir Mohamad, the former prime minister and party president - by picking up where the likes of extremists Ibrahim Ali and Perkasa had failed.
Zahid has refused to listen to the warnings from some UMNO bloggers and even from amongst the Opposition that Mahathir is luring him into a trap for his downfall so that Mahathir's son, Mukhriz the Kedah chief minister, can take over his vice-president's slot. There are only 3 VP posts in UMNO and these are held by Zahid, Najib's cousin Hishammuddin Hussein and Sabah leader Shafie Apdal.
Zahid also believes that he is voicing the sentiment of the ‘Malay Supremacy’ group both in and outside UMNO. He seems to appointed himself the leader of this group since Ibrahim Ali has been side-lined, not only losing the Pasir Mas seat but completely ignored by the Najib camp for a Senator-ship and thus a Cabinet post.
Zahid may believe that the road in UMNO is long and full of pitfalls. His best defense, whether or not he gets the full and final endorsement from Mahathir, is to be on the side that the veteran leader seems to like. Either way Zahid figures he doesn't lose. If Mahathir withholds the final backing that he hopes would propel him into the UMNO deputy presidency with incumbent Muhyiddin Yassin promoted to replace Prime Minister Najib Razak as the party presidency, he - Zahid - would still earn the support of the hardliners in UMNO.
Complex UMNO, full of plots
Of course, he is hoping the 88-year-old Mahathir will give the nod to a Muhyiddin-Zahid combo, which would then take on Najib and Hishammuddin at the UMNO presidential election in September. But politics in UMNO are complex. Decisions such as these are never made hastily and only at the last minute - taking consideration of the support from all the factions - would Mahathir finally signal if he will give the thumbs-up to Najib remaining as No.1 and Muhyiddin No.2.
At this point in time, there is even the possibility that Mahathir might manipulate a contest but throw his support to the Najib-Hisham combo instead of to Muhyiddin and Zahid. Yes, this is the treachery that is UMNO. And this is why, there are so many conflicting signals.
Not only is Muhyiddin keeping his head down till he gets a better whiff of where the wind is blowing but even Najib has and is still preparing to eventuality that Mahathir might decide to 'chop' him. After all, Najib has performed the worse of any UMNO president, losing for the BN coalition the most number of seats during the May 5 general election.
What Mahathir wants
What's in it for Mahathir? His son, of course. Mahathir wants Mukhriz to take over as UMNO president and in the not too distant future. Mukhriz can hit target through either combo - wait for Najib to pass over to Hisham and then to him. Or wait for Muhyddin to pass over the presidential chair to Zahid and then to him.
Which route is 'safer'? That is what is troubling Mahathir. Would Najib and Hisham be more likely to keep their word or would the two scions of the second and third UMNO presidents decide to ignore Mukhriz and keep it strictly all in the family? One worry that Mahathir has is in the rather large form of Rosmah Mansor, Najib's somewhat megalomaniac and ambitious wife.
How much 'safer' are Muhyiddin and Zahid? Both men owe their success to Mahathir. It was the elder leader who ensured Muhyiddin got the No. 2 slot after helping him to oust Abdullah Badawi in 2008. As for Zahid, after a short spell of unpleasantness in 1990s due to Zahid's then close friendship with Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim, Mahathir has generally been supportive of Zahid's position in UMNO.
Zahid seen as more 'gutsy'
Some in the UMNO circles said Mahathir decided to give Zahid, whom he jailed under the Internal Security Act, a second chance because he saw in the latter a fiery spirit mirroring Anwar's. The older man decided to let Zahid return and build a niche of his own in the party. And Zahid - who like Ali Rustam is good in networking - has managed to build better grassroots support than even Muhyiddin, whom many say has been too cautious.
Many in the UMNO divisions too like Zahid for his 'guts'. They see in him a leader with the sort of fire in his belly that Anwar, who used to be their deputy president, has. Perhaps, it is now easier to understand Zahid's bravado.
It may seem crass and really top-grade suicide material but as far as Zahid is concerned, as long as he captures the imagination of the rather wayward UMNO warlords, nothing else matters. Not at least until after the dust settles on the UMNO election and he has safely attained either the position he is targeting - which is the deputy presidency - or he manages to defend his vice presidency.
Some have argued that times have changed. Ibrahim Ali was a major flop and so was his deputy Zulkifli Noordin; their failure to win any seats in the recent election and subsequent sidelining by the Najib camp shows the right-wingers in UMNO might not be that powerful a force any longer. Mahathir's influence may also be waning; so for how long and to what extent will he continue to shield and support Zahid?
Many read the recent article by former NST editor Kadir Jasin, who is believed to be linked to the Mahathr camp, titled These macho men make me gay as directed at telling Zahid to cool down.
Can Dr M trust Najib, Rosmah & Hisham?
No doubt, Mahathir had in the past protected Zahid, for example in the purported CBT case involving Yayasan Gerak Bakti Kebangsaan pertaining to Kretam Holding shares issued by MITI, and may also have played a hand in shielding Zahid in his assault case, Mahathir is only doing so for his son's sake.
If Mukhriz's position is threatened in any way, if it is deemed to risky to unseat Najib at this point in time, Mahathir might decide to push for the status quo to remain. He might make it too risky for Muhyiddin to challenge Najib, and hence Muhyiddin will have no chance but to stay put as deputy president. Mahathir would then need to push Mukhriz up the VP posts and Zahid might end up - forced either directly or indirectly to yield the seat to Mukhriz.
The way things are going, if Zahid continues to propound tough outdated policies such as maintaining draconian laws to protect UMNO's grip on power, unless the right-wing is with him and they are as influential he thinks, Zahid may lose for himself his own vice-presidency due to his boorish and uncouth politicking.
This is a possible scenario but obviously it does not provide Mahathir with the insurance he needs for Mukhriz. So what is Mukhriz beats Zahid for VP post, how does Mahathir ensure he gets to the president's chair? Unlike Anwar's daughter, Nurul Izzah, Mukhriz has no flair for politics. If he could, he would rather stay out of the political limelight.
Still horse-trading
So it looks like Mahathir is still horse-trading with all the factions in UMNO. So too are Najib and Hishammuddin. To a more modest extent, so is Muhyiddin.
Really, as it stands, Mahthir's safest bet is still the Muhyiddin-Zahid combo as far as getting Mukhriz the UMNO presidency is concerned. It would be very risky to trust that Najib, Rosmah and Hishammuddin would bother to keep their word and pass the baton to Mukhriz once they have entrenched themselves.
Thus whatever Zahid is doing now could just be a ’sandiwara’ -  a smoke-screen for Mahathir make the final move to oust Najib. After all, the majority in UMNO does agree that Najib has performed much worse than Badawi even though his camp insists that he has taken the party to new heights by getting a record 88 seats.
So keep your seat belts fastened because it is still a very bumpy, perhaps even explosive, ride until the presidential election rolls along in September.
Malaysia Chronicle

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